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Part ACSIR NET December 2025an-extra-forced-outcome-costs-probability-for-any-value-of-p

An extra forced outcome costs probability for any value of p

Some, but not all, faces of a six-faced cubical fair die are painted red (R) and the remaining green (G); and the die is thrown until red faces come up on top 4 times. Consider the following sequences of colours listed left to right as they appear on the top. A: GRRRR. B: GRGRRR. Which one of the following is true?

  1. A.A is more probable than B✓
  2. B.B is more probable than A
  3. C.Both have the same probability
  4. D.Whether A or B is more probable depends upon how many faces are painted green

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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