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Part CCSIR NET December 2025beta-tilde-1-is-a-shrinkage-estimator-by-construction-it-cannot-have-worse-mse-than-the-unbiased-ols-estimator

Beta tilde 1 is a shrinkage estimator by construction it cannot have worse mse than the unbiased ols estimator

Consider the simple linear regression model Yi=βxi+εi,i=1,2,,nY_{i}=\beta{}x_{i}+\varepsilon_{i}, i=1,2,\dots,n, where β>0,xi2>0\beta>0, \sum{}x_{i}^{2}>0, and the uncorrelated errors εi\varepsilon_{i} have zero mean and finite variance σ2(>0)\sigma^{2}(>0). Let β\betã1=aiYi_{1}=\sum{}a_{i}*Y_{i}, where aisa_{i}*'s minimize E(aiYiβ)2E(\sum{}a_{i} Y_{i}-\beta)^{2} with respect to scalars a1,a2,,ana_{1},a_{2},\dots,a_{n}. Let β\betã2_{2} be the ordinary least squares estimator of β\beta. Which of the following statements are true?

  1. A.Var(βVar(\betã1)>Var(β_{1}) > Var(\betã2),E(β_{2}), E(\betã1β)2>E(β_{1}-\beta)^{2} > E(\betã2β)2_{2}-\beta)^{2}
  2. B.Var(βVar(\betã1)<Var(β_{1}) < Var(\betã2),E(β_{2}), E(\betã1β)2<E(β_{1}-\beta)^{2} < E(\betã2β)2_{2}-\beta)^{2}
  3. C.Var(βVar(\betã1)>Var(β_{1}) > Var(\betã2),E(β_{2}), E(\betã1)<E(β_{1}) < E(\betã2)_{2})
  4. D.Var(βVar(\betã1)<Var(β_{1}) < Var(\betã2),E(β_{2}), E(\betã1)>E(β_{1}) > E(\betã2)_{2})

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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Related counterexample: OLS is the BLUE in every linear model

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The chapter behind this: Linear models, Gauss–Markov and ANOVA — free to read

From Linear Models and MultivariateGauss–Markov, regression, ANOVA basics

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