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Part CCSIR NET June 2023mixture-vs-linear-combination

Mixture vs linear combination

Let X1X_{1} and X2X_{2} be independent, X1X_{1} gamma with mean 10 and variance 10, and X2X_{2} ~ N(3, 4). Let f1,f2f_{1}, f_{2} be their densities. Define Y with density f(y)=0.4f1(y)+qf2(y)f(y) = 0.4 f_{1}(y) + q f_{2}(y). Which of the following are true?

  1. A.q = 0.6✓ Correct
  2. B.E[Y] = 5.8✓ Correct
  3. C.Var(Y) = 3.04
  4. D.Y=0.4X1+Y = 0.4X_{1} + qX2_{2}

The idea, in plain words

The two weights in a mixture must add to one, which fixes the unknown weight immediately. After that the mixture's average is the weighted average of the two, but the spread is not — you have to go through the average of the squares.

Solution

Densities integrate to 1 ⇒ q = 0.6.

Mixture mean 0.4·10 + 0.6·3 = 5.8.

E[Y2]=0.4(10+100)+0.6(4+9)=51.8E[Y^{2}] = 0.4(10 + 100) + 0.6(4 + 9) = 51.8

so Var(Y)=51.8−5.82=18.16Var(Y) = 51.8 - 5.8^{2} = 18.16.

A mixture is not a linear combination of the variables.

Why each option is right or wrong

Checked against 5 symbolic computations
  • A.Correct

    True.

    A density must integrate to 1, and f1f_{1} and f2f_{2} each already do

    so 0.4 + q = 1 and q = 0.6.

    (For the record, SymPy solves the gamma parameters from mean 10 and variance 10 as shape 10, scale 1.) The trigger: the mixing weights of a density mixture must sum to 1 — that alone fixes q before any moment is computed.

  • B.Correct

    True.

    For a mixture, moments mix with the same weights: E[Y]=0.4⋅E[X1]+0.6⋅E[X2]=0.4⋅10+0.6⋅3=5.8(E[Y] = 0.4\cdot{}E[X_{1}] + 0.6\cdot{}E[X_{2}] = 0.4\cdot10 + 0.6\cdot3 = 5.8 (verified).

    Note that the mean of a mixture does coincide with the mean of the corresponding linear combination — which is exactly why (C) and (D) are tempting.

  • False, and the number offered is revealing.

    Variances do not mix with the weights.

    Correctly, E[Y2]=0.4(10+100)+0.6(4+9)=51.8E[Y^{2}] = 0.4(10 + 100) + 0.6(4 + 9) = 51.8

    so Var(Y)=51.8−5.82=18.16(Var(Y) = 51.8 - 5.8^{2} = 18.16 (verified).

    SymPy also computes 0.42⋅10+0.62⋅4=3.040.4^{2}\cdot10 + 0.6^{2}\cdot4 = 3.04 — precisely the option offered — which is the variance of the linear combination 0.4X1+0.6X20.4X_{1} + 0.6X_{2}.

    This option is the right formula applied to the wrong object.

  • False, and it is the conceptual error behind (C).

    A mixture is a random choice between two distributions — with probability 0.4 you observe a gamma variable, otherwise a normal one — not a weighted sum of both.

    The distinction shows up immediately in the variance (18.16 versus 3.04) and in the shape: a mixture here is bimodal

    while a linear combination is not.

2 of these 2 wrong options correspond to a named reasoning error — the same errors recur across subjects.

The trap it tests

Invariants don't determine

Two objects sharing an invariant were treated as the same object.

Drill statements like this

Related counterexample: The maximum of independent exponentials is exponential

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: The standard distributions — free to read

From Probability › Standard discrete and continuous distributions

Last revised . Found a mistake? Tell us — corrections are the fastest thing we act on.

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