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Part BCSIR NET December 2023extreme-value-scaling

Extreme value scaling

Let X1,X2,…X_{1}, X_{2}, \dots be i.i.d. with CDF F(x) = 0 for x < 5 and 1 − e5−xe^{5-x} for x ≥ 5. Define Yn=min⁡Y_{n} = \min{X1,…,XnX_{1}, \dots, X_{n}} and Zn=n(Yn−5)Z_{n} = \sqrt{n} (Y_{n} - 5), and let Z be standard normal. Which one of the following statements is true?

  1. A.lim⁡P(1/2<Yn<3/2)=1\lim P(1/2 < Y_{n} < 3/2) = 1
  2. B.Yn→5Y_{n} \to 5 in probability as n→∞n \to \infty✓ Correct
  3. C.Zn→ZZ_{n} \to Z in distribution as n→∞n \to \infty
  4. D.lim⁡P(1<Zn<2)=Φ(2)−Φ(1)\lim P(1 < Z_{n} < 2) = \Phi(2) - \Phi(1)

The idea, in plain words

The smallest of many samples is pulled down towards the lowest possible value, and it approaches at a rate set by the sample size itself, not by its square root. Magnify with the wrong power and you see nothing.

Solution

Yn−5Y_{n} - 5 ~ Exp(n)

so Yn→5Y_{n} \to 5 in probability while n(Yn−5)→0\sqrt{n}(Y_{n} - 5) \to 0 in probability (the right scaling is n, not n)\sqrt{n}).

Why each option is right or wrong

Checked against 3 symbolic computations
  • False, and it is ruled out before any limit is taken.

    The distribution is supported on [5,∞)[5, \infty) — SymPy confirms F(5)=1−e0=0F(5) = 1 - e^{0} = 0 — so every XiX_{i}, and hence every YnY_{n}, is at least 5.

    The event {1/2<Yn<3/21/2 < Y_{n} < 3/2} is impossible, with probability 0 for every n.

  • B.Correct

    True.

    Each XiX_{i} is 5 plus an Exp(1) variable

    so Yn−5Y_{n} - 5 is the minimum of n independent Exp(1) variables

    which is Exp(n).

    Then P(|Yn−5Y_{n} - 5| >ε)=> \varepsilon) = e−nεe^{-n\varepsilon} → 0 for every ε>0(\varepsilon > 0 (verified at ε=1/10)\varepsilon = 1/10)

    which is convergence in probability to 5.

    The trigger: the minimum of n exponentials has rate n

    so it collapses onto the left endpoint at speed 1/n.

  • False.

    The scaling is wrong: Yn−5Y_{n} - 5 ~ Exp(n) has size of order 1/n

    so the natural normaliser is n, not n\sqrt{n}.

    With n\sqrt{n} the product has mean n/n=1/n→0(\sqrt{n}/n = 1/\sqrt{n} \to 0 (verified)

    so Zn→0Z_{n} \to 0 in probability, a degenerate limit.

    And even correctly scaled, n(Yn−5)n(Y_{n} - 5) ~ Exp(1) — extreme-value limits are exponential or Weibull, never normal.

    n\sqrt{n} is the central-limit scaling for sums, not for minima.

  • False, for the same reason as (C).

    Since Zn→0Z_{n} \to 0 in probability, P(1<Zn<2)→0P(1 < Z_{n} < 2) \to 0, not Φ(2)−Φ(1)≈0.136\Phi(2) - \Phi(1) \approx 0.136.

    Any normal-looking answer here signals that a central limit theorem has been applied to a minimum.

3 of these 3 wrong options correspond to a named reasoning error — the same errors recur across subjects.

The trap it tests

Moments and tails

A moment assumed to exist, or tail behaviour assumed to be tame.

Drill statements like this

Related counterexample: Convergence in probability implies almost sure convergence

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: Modes of convergence and the limit theorems — free to read

From Limit Theorems and Markov Chains › Modes of convergence, WLLN, SLLN, CLT

Last revised . Found a mistake? Tell us — corrections are the fastest thing we act on.

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