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Part BCSIR NET December 2024the-stationary-share-not-the-transition-rate

The stationary share not the transition rate

In an examination question paper, all questions are 'True' or 'False' type. These are arranged in such a way that three-fourth of times a question with answer 'True' is followed by a question with answer 'True'. Also two-third of times a question with answer 'False' is followed by a question with answer 'False'. If the question paper has 100 questions, the approximate probability that the correct answer of the 100-th question is 'True', is

  1. A.3/7
  2. B.4/7✓
  3. C.3/4
  4. D.5/6

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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50 are analysed free — try those first.

Related counterexample: An irreducible chain with a stationary distribution converges to it

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: Markov chains: classification and stationary behaviour — free to read

From Limit Theorems and Markov Chains › Markov chains: classification of states, stationary distributions

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