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Part BCSIR NET December 2024thinned-poisson-streams-are-independent

Thinned poisson streams are independent

Planes take off in a busy airport in accordance with the Poisson process with rate 60 planes per hour. 10% of these planes are cargo planes and 90% are passenger planes. Given that 10 cargo planes have taken off during one hour, what is the expected total number of planes that have taken off in that hour?

  1. A.90
  2. B.54
  3. C.64✓
  4. D.50

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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50 are analysed free — try those first.

Related counterexample: An irreducible chain with a stationary distribution converges to it

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: Markov chains: classification and stationary behaviour — free to read

From Limit Theorems and Markov Chains › Markov chains: classification of states, stationary distributions

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