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Part BCSIR NET December 2024the-selection-weight-cancels-the-white-fraction

The selection weight cancels the white fraction

Let be 6 urns such that urn U_k contains balls, out of which 3k are white balls and are black balls, k = 1, 2, …, 6. An urn is selected with the probability of selecting urn U_k being proportional to (k + 3). A ball is chosen randomly from the selected urn. Then the probability that urn was selected, given that the ball drawn is white, is equal to

  1. A.7/13
  2. B.6/13
  3. C.1/6
  4. D.7/9

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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Related counterexample: Pairwise independent events are mutually independent

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: Probability axioms, conditioning and independence — free to read

From ProbabilityAxioms, conditional probability, independence, Bayes

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