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Part BCSIR NET December 2024the-weights-cancel-against-the-white-fraction

The weights cancel against the white fraction

Let be 5 urns such that urn U_k contains balls, out of which 2k are white balls and are black balls, k = 1, 2, …, 5. An urn is selected with probability of selecting urn U_k being proportional to (k + 2). A ball is chosen randomly from the selected urn. Then, the probability that the urn was selected, given that the ball drawn is white, is equal to

  1. A.3/5
  2. B.2/5
  3. C.1/5
  4. D.3/4

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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Related counterexample: Pairwise independent events are mutually independent

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: Probability axioms, conditioning and independence — free to read

From ProbabilityAxioms, conditional probability, independence, Bayes

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