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Part BCSIR NET June 2024conjugate-prior-posterior-mean

Conjugate prior posterior mean

Let be a random sample from a distribution with the probability density function f(x| if 0 < x < 1, and 0 otherwise, where is an unknown parameter. The prior distribution of is given by if , and 0 otherwise. The Bayes estimator of under squared error loss is

  1. A.
  2. B.
  3. C.
  4. D.

You have the answer. Trap Analysis is why the other three were written.

Not a worked solution repeated four times — the specific reasoning error each wrong option was built to reward.

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50 are analysed free — try those first.

Related counterexample: The MLE is unbiased

More on this topic

The chapter behind this: Maximum likelihood and the method of moments — free to read

From EstimationMLE and method of moments

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